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Forex Trading - Don't Be A Punter

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Published: 19Nov2009
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When I thought writing about a punter I thought it was a good idea to check out other definitions since the one I am talking about is sort of a slang version used in forex trading. I first looked up the word punt, and found once source that listed 33 definitions. I then looked up punter and got several definitions, including a kicker in American football, which I already knew. I then came across a British definition for punter that defines it as a person who gambles or bets against a bookmaker or the house. This was the definition I was looking for.

What is a punter in forex trading? There is no formal definition that I have seen and it usually refers to someone who trades from his gut and most times seems to be against the market. This is in line with the British definition cited above, more like gambling than trading.

The reason I decided to write about punting is that after decades of trading in the forex market, I still find myself occasionally punting or itching to punt, only discipline holding me back. Maybe it is because of my background as a bank trader, where I started out before there were screens when we had to trade more on instinct and gut feel than anything else. Or perhaps it is the introduction of electronic trading, which makes it easy to be lured into trading by watching the price action on a screen. Whatever the case, punting is not a long range prescription for success but rather a road to ruin, no matter how good your instincts might be.

Trading on gut feel alone usually results in taking profits too soon when you are right and cutting losses too late when you are wrong. One reason is because these types of trades are not well thought out in terms of risk/reward with defined stops and profit targets. Rather they are more often than not based on gut feel and hope you have timed it right and picked a top or bottom.

One event that encouraged me to write this article was today’s (Oct 20, 2009) price action in USD/CAD after the bank of Canada announced its monetary policy decision. It is a good example of currency trading and what lures in a punter to trade. While there were no surprises in the Ban of Canada decision to keep rates unchanged, USD/Cad firmed following the announcement. It had closed at 1.0298 the previous day after falling sharply in line with a generally weaker US dollar. Prior to the Bank of Canada decision, it was trading around 1.0310. After the decision, USD/CAD started to firm and the average punter would look to sell it at every pause. I know because that was my instinct as well until I looked at a chart and abandoned the idea. Well, USD/CAD paused at various levels, sucking in the punter and then continued to march higher as weak short positions were squeezed until finally peaking around 1.0525. Even if the punter was lucky to grab a few pips by fading the moves and then buying USD/CAD back quickly, the price action, as illustrated above, offered a poor risk/reward with losses far outstripping gains if the entry was timed wrong.

The point is punting in forex trading or any other type of trading is not a prescription for long term success. I have said this many times and it is worth repeating here: Those who treat currency trading as if they were in a casino (i.e. gamble) will see the same long-term results as when they go to a casino. If you treat forex trading like a business, employing solid analysis, good risk/reward trades and prudent money management, you have a better chance of success.

Jay Meisler is a co-founder of Global-View.com, the leading forex discussion site for more than a decade and where traders from around the globe come for the latest breaking news, flows, rumors and trading ideas =>http://www.global-view.com

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